[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 130853
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130852 
TXZ000-131015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0352 AM CDT THU MAY 13 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN/ERN TX

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 130852Z - 131015Z

...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN TX...

LLJ/WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING FROM THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO ECNTRL TX AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM SWRN TX.  THIS INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION IS AIDING
THE GRADUAL EXPANSION OF CONVECTION OVER SERN TX.  ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS MARGINAL...LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY PROVE STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WEAK STORM ROTATION WITHIN MARITIME TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT.  THIS IS OF SOME CONCERN IF DISCRETE STRUCTURES WERE TO
EVOLVE WITHIN THE LARGER PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CURRENT THINKING IS
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL SLOWLY EXPAND AND INCREASE IN DEPTH WITH THE
LIKLIHOOD FOR MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SPREADING ACROSS ERN TX
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.

..DARROW.. 05/13/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

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