[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120022 
MNZ000-120215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0662
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0722 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND INTO N CNTRL MN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 190...

VALID 120022Z - 120215Z

CONTINUE WW.

MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO EVOLVE NEAR
INTERSECTION OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND SHARP SURFACE
FRONT...NOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF FERGUS FALLS MN.  JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF FRONT...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...BUT
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING JUST TO THE COOL SIDE OF
BOUNDARY...ABOVE VERY SHARP FRONTAL INVERSION. THIS IS PROVIDING
SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXTENT OF TORNADO THREAT...AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...AS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER CONTINUES TO EVOLVE/GROW THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. 

HOWEVER...AT LEAST LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE...WITH RISK OF
TORNADOES CONFINED TO IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF SURFACE FRONT WHICH
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD BEMIDJI.  ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP NORTH
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AS
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS GRADUALLY
VEERS FROM SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.

..KERR.. 05/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

46929649 47659613 48099552 48269394 47729357 46849428
46679515 46479598 46569654 

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