[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120102
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120102 
NEZ000-COZ000-120300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0663
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0802 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NEB...NE CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 120102Z - 120300Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE
THREAT.

STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET CONTINUES TO NOSE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...WITH AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING IN LEFT EXIT REGION
BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTH
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  AREA OF FOCUSED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
TO BE DEVELOPING  ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO AREAS WEST
OF NORTH PLATTE NEB...AND DRY LINE IS RETREATING TOWARD THIS AREA. 
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP/STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEXT
FEW HOURS...NORTH/EAST OF ALLIANCE INTO AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF SIDNEY.

WEAK COLD FRONT ALREADY NOSING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WILL TEND TO UNDERCUT STRONGER CONVECTION...BUT INSTABILITY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT...AS
LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

..KERR.. 05/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

41160281 41940241 42750129 42630060 41540075 40680100
40090147 40090219 40330254 40470296 

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