[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 120019
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120019 
TXZ000-OKZ000-120215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 188...

VALID 120019Z - 120215Z

MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EAST OF THE
DRY LINE OVER THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES FROM THE VICINITY OF GUY TO
ABOUT 25 MILES SW AMA...BECOMING MORE ISOLATED FARTHER SOUTHWARD IN
WW.

CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AIDED BY APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND CLEARLY DEPICTED IN
18 UTC ETA FORECAST OF DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE.  THE PASSAGE OF VERY WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON RESULTED IN BACKING MID LEVEL
WINDS AROUND 500 MB.  MODELS INDICATE SFC TO 6 KM SHEAR INCREASES TO
BETWEEN 30 AND 40 KTS BY 03 UTC...PRODUCING AN INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR MULTICELLULAR OR SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION.
 LARGE AMOUNT OF CAPE /CURRENTLY AROUND 2200 J/KG PER RUC FORECAST/
SUPPORTS CONTINUED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..BRIGHT.. 05/12/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

32990288 34970296 35640233 36820209 36830006 32980011 

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