[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112353 
SDZ000-NEZ000-120200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0660
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL NEB...CNTRL/ERN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112353Z - 120200Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 187...AND NEW WW 189.
THREAT FOR STRONG...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
12/03-04Z.

UPSCALE EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO MORE ORGANIZED
MESOSCALE SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS UNDERWAY IN
MOIST...POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH/EAST OF DEEP SURFACE
LOW NEAR PIERRE.  WARM SECTOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...CONTRIBUTING TO SURFACE BASED CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG. 
THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE
HAIL...WHILE DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS BECOME AN INCREASING THREAT WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

EVAPORATIVE COOLING NEAR HEAVY PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE MESO HIGH/COLD POOL ACROSS THE
CHAMBERLAIN/WINNER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH
AROUND 12/01Z. THIS SHOULD SUBSEQUENTLY BEGIN TO SURGE
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR...AS 40+ KT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE/
HEIGHT FALL CENTER ALREADY SHIFTING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARD
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

..KERR.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

44749985 45159933 45559846 45819735 45129690 44139712
43429784 43139862 42919927 42810060 44199983 

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