[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112303 
LAZ000-TXZ000-120000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0659
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0603 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 186...

VALID 112303Z - 120000Z

MOIST SELY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES TO ADVECT UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO
REGION AHEAD OF BOW ECHO CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SERN TX.
CONVECTIVE LINE IS MOVING EASTWARD AROUND 30 MPH INTO SLIGHTLY MORE
STABLE AIRMASS...WITH MUCAPE CAPE AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG PER LATEST
RUC ANALYSIS AND SHORT RANGE FORECAST. MEAN WINDS FROM SFC TO 6 KM
ARE SWLY AT 25 MPH AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZED
EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE...ALTHOUGH GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS AS SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS MORE STABLE
AIRMASS.  AT THIS TIME WW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTENDED BEYOND THE
CURRENT 00 UTC EXPIRATION TIME.

..BRIGHT.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

29539530 29809492 30459480 30819375 29869336 29159510 

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