[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112237 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0658
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND/NE SD/WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 112237Z - 120030Z

CONTINUE WW 187...NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS
PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/WESTERN MINNESOTA.

SHARP EAST-WEST ORIENTED COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA MN/
ABERDEEN SD...INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF
PIERRE.  BOUNDARY HAS BECOME FOCUS FOR INTENSE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AS IT SLOWLY  SURGES SOUTHWARD...ENHANCING LIFT OF
MOIST POTENTIAL UNSTABLE AIR MASS...IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA.  MOST CONVECTIVE CELLS ARE BEING UNDERCUT BY
FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL INTENSE DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS IS WHERE
CONVERGENCE/WARM ADVECTION HAS BECOME ENHANCED ON NOSE OF SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET OVERRIDING SHALLOW COLD FRONT.  ACTIVITY APPEARS
LIKELY TO PERSIST...WITH PRIMARY ACTIVITY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS LOW-LEVEL JET
VEERS THIS EVENING.

LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE TO THE WEST OF LOW-LEVEL JET
AXIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE/NORTH OF COLD
FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.  THIS WILL
LIKELY MAINTAIN THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

..KERR.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

45449941 46059935 47339824 48249744 48329540 47119474
45929614 45249784 45069871 

WWWW