[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112220 
NEZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-120015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0520 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SW NEB/WRN KS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 185...

VALID 112220Z - 120015Z

CONTINUE WW.

LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS STILL WEAK ALONG DRY LINE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN COLORADO/KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA...BUT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS ONGOING IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING.  WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WILL
SUPPORT MORE INTENSE CONVECTION WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. 
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED RISK OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  MODELS SUGGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW MAY BEGIN TO
VEER FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AFTER 12/00Z...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
MORE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..KERR.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...

41080136 41430094 40970018 39020036 37410024 36960125
37340176 38090178 39290163 

WWWW