[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 112204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112204 
SDZ000-NEZ000-120000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0656
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL SD INTO W CNTRL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 184...

VALID 112204Z - 120000Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.

DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING NEAR DEEP SURFACE
LOW ...NORTHWEST OF PIERRE SD...SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE INTO AREAS
EAST OF ALLIANCE NEB...WHERE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
REACHED WITH STRONG HEATING.  MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL
IN MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. 
LARGE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL ALSO
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS.

RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET LIFTING OUT OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION NEXT FEW HOURS. 
EVOLUTION OF LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY
SOUTHEAST OF SURFACE LOW BY THE 12/00-02Z TIME FRAME...ACROSS PIERRE
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL
SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH.  INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
WINDS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN AREAS EAST/SOUTH OF PIERRE ...AS SHARP
SURFACE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO SURGE SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

..KERR.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...

42140235 43020194 43830166 44510059 44820017 45089983
45099915 44079875 42579983 41740086 41860190 

WWWW