[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111900 
NEZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-112100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SW NEB...WRN KS...NE NM THROUGH THE TX AND
OH PANHANDLES

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111900Z - 112100Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE BY 20-21Z.
 ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS IS DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE AS
WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NE NM. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES
TO DESTABILIZE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB THROUGH THE 80S...THE CAP WILL
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR STORMS TO INITIATE. LATEST PROFILER
DATA SHOW MODERATE SSWLY FLOW THROUGH 6 KM BUT WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
 GENERALLY BELOW 25 KT. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY HIGH LCL
HEIGHTS SUGGEST PRIMARY MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR EVOLVING INTO
LINE SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL JET ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET...SHEAR WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS
ESPECIALLY FROM WRN KS THROUGH SW NEB.

..DIAL.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

35270349 38590246 40660205 40890089 35500098 

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