[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111832
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111832 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-NEZ000-112030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AND CNTRL SD THROUGH W CNTRL MN NW AND N CNTRL
NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111832Z - 112030Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NRN SD AND 
INTO NW NEB WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND WILL BE LIKELY. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF NE SD. AREA  IS BEING MONITORED
FOR A WW.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS EXTREME NRN SD
FROM A DEEP SURFACE LOW IN NW SD. A DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD THROUGH WRN
SD INTO NW NEB. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF MERGING WITH THE
DRYLINE ACROSS NW SD. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN
WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH OF SD INTO NEB. MOIST AXIS HAS RETURNED NWWD
THROUGH NEB AND SD WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S BELOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
IS EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM
ABERDEEN STILL SHOWS A STRONG CAP. HOWEVER...STRONG FORCING ALONG
THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ALONG AND N OF THE E-W ORIENTED
WARM FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID 80S AND CAP WEAKENS.

A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DEEPENING
LEE CYCLONE MAINTAINING STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER ERN NEB AND SD
THROUGH WRN MN. STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL REMAIN OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST IN THE WARM SECTOR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND LINES WITH BOW ECHOES. BEST THREAT
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE IF SUPERCELLS CAN REMAIN ANCHORED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NE SD INTO W CNTRL MN. FARTHER W ACROSS
WRN SD THROUGH WRN NEB ...HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.

..DIAL.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...CYS...

41900289 42710328 43540305 44530350 45690295 46220023
46059590 45139578 44089951 42300123 

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