[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 111705
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111704 
WVZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-111930-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0650
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT TUE MAY 11 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/WRN OH...CENTRAL/NRN IND...AND SWRN MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 111704Z - 111930Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS FROM
CENTRAL OH NWWD INTO NWRN IND/FAR SWRN MI. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

AT 1645Z...BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF IND INTO CENTRAL OH. VISIBLE IMAGERY
INDICATES TOWERING CU DEVELOPING WEST OF CMH WWD TO THE IND BORDER.
THIS REGION IS JUST SOUTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WITH EXTENDS E-W
ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF OH WNWWD INTO FAR SWRN MI. THIS FRONT WILL
RETREAT NWD INTO SWRN MI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION DEVELOPING IN NERN IND/NWRN OH/SWRN MI.

ILN SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR CURRENT SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
YIELDS MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.
ALTHOUGH SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK /10-20 KT/ THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION 
NEAR THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGESTS PULSE SEVERE STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS WITH
DOWNDRAFTS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR
DURING NEXT 1-3 HOURS WITH REGENERATION OF CELLS ALONG CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.

..BANACOS.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...GRR...IND...

39868454 40188533 40668621 41088631 42168614 42128475
41568443 41278393 41048292 41018224 41078129 41098062
40288061 39738086 39538137 39578229 39598338 

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