[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110319
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110319 
SDZ000-NEZ000-NDZ000-COZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-110515-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0644
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...CO/WY FRONT RANGE...NEB PNHDL...WRN SD...SW
ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 181...

VALID 110319Z - 110515Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.  NEW WW NORTHEAST OF 181 IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

VAD WIND DATA INDICATES MID-LEVEL FLOW HAS BEGUN TO VEER ALONG/JUST
EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE...IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  AS THIS REGIME BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SOUTHWESTERLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WARMING ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING INHIBITION IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES.  

MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY PERSIST ALONG/WEST OF
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
EASTERN WYOMING AND MONTANA/SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BORDERS
THROUGH 06Z.  HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE DUE TO RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING ON EASTERN
EDGE OF CAP.  PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT NOW APPEARS TO BE LARGE
HAIL...WITH SUPERCELLS BASED ABOVE DEEPENING NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.

..KERR.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...GGW...

45740586 46590508 46240359 44780313 42730313 42340345
41860357 40840391 41170410 41180470 42170489 43010505
44110541 44620573 45380585 

WWWW