[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110353 
NDZ000-MTZ000-110600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0645
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1053 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE MT...NW ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110353Z - 110600Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING
SEVERE THREAT AND WW.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
EXIT REGION OF CYCLONIC UPPER JET BECOMING FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHEAST
MONTANA BY 06Z.  STRONG DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS REGION...SUPPORTING
INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
BILLINGS...AND THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY/DEVELOP INTO AREAS EAST/SOUTHEAST OF GLASGOW AND WOLF
POINT NEXT FEW HOURS.  IT CURRENTLY APPEARS ACTIVITY IS BASED ABOVE
FRONTAL INVERSION NEAR THE 700 MB LEVEL...WITH CAPE GENERALLY OR THE
ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  HOWEVER...AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE
NORTH DAKOTA BORDER NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER 06Z...FORCING/INCREASING
MOISTURE ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CAPE AND MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS.  STRONG
SHEAR PROFILES MAY AID EVOLUTION OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER...THOUGH LARGE HAIL LIKELY WILL REMAIN PRIMARY THREAT.

..KERR.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

47540815 48300691 48420380 47240359 46830559 46560720 

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