[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110308 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-110615-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...NRN NJ AND THE NYC METRO AREA/LONG ISLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 110308Z - 110615Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT
MOVES ESEWD AROUND 10 KTS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONALLY...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM NRN NJ INTO NYC METRO/WRN LONG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WHERE CELL TRAINING IS ANTICIPATED.

00Z SOUNDING FROM OKX AND IAD INDICATED PWAT VALUES FROM 1.25 TO
1.30 INCHES OR ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL.THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS HAS AIDED IN HIGH PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY WITH RAINFALL RATES UP 2 INCHES/HR WHERE CELL TRAINING
OCCURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER MCS OVER SERN NY HAS BECOME
ORIENTED WNW-ESE FROM NERN PA TO JUST NORTH OF THE NYC METRO AREA.
FORECAST CELL MOTIONS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY ALONG WITH
STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DUE TO 35 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
AID IN MAINTAINING STORM INITIATION AND TRAINING CONVECTIVE THREAT
INTO THE NYC METRO AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATE FEED INTO THE BACK SIDE OF CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN
MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND SUPPORT THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL AS WELL.

..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...

40397412 40547535 41037585 41267590 41327519 41187412
40977378 40757358 40417397 

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