[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110234
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110234 
KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-110400-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0934 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/NCENTRAL KS AND SWRN/SCENTRAL NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 180...

VALID 110234Z - 110400Z

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS MAY INTENSIFY AS LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS CONVECTION LIFTS NEWD THROUGH MUCH OF WRN
KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAIN THREAT MAY NOW HAVE TRANSITIONED
INTO DAMAGING WINDS...BUT DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND A
STRONG MID LEVEL CAP MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL WIND THREAT. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
NCENTRAL KS/SCENTRAL NEB IS POSSIBLE.

LATEST 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM DDC AND LBF INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL CAP
AROUND 700 MB. CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER SWRN KS HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...STORM MERGERS AND
DEVELOPING/DEEPENING OF THE COLD POOL MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
AN INCREASED WIND THREAT NEWD INTO THE NRN AND ERN HALF OF WW 180
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL JET TO OVER 45 KTS
BY 06Z WOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT IF CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION CAN BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.

..CROSBIE.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

36910109 38040111 38590129 38730204 40030191 40039968
39989925 36899985 

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