[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 110043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 110043 
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-110245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0640
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...TX/OK PANHANDLES SWD INTO WRN TX AND ERN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 110043Z - 110245Z

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH EMBEDDED SEVERE
CELLS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS. DISORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE WW
ISSUANCE.

AT 0030Z...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL OK
PANHANDLE SWD INTO ERN NM/WRN TX CONTINUE WITH EMBEDDED STRONG
REFLECTIVITY AND VIL CORES. STORMS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY WELL
ORGANIZED...HOWEVER...EFFICIENT REGENERATION OF CELLS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE
NEXT 1-3 HOURS. THE 00Z AMA SOUNDING INDICATES A RELATIVELY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-35F. STEEP
700-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 9 C/KM ARE CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE
HAIL POTENTIAL...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE. HOWEVER...WEAK
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION...AND
MOST UPDRAFTS WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED. ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS
LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES AND ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNDRAFT
WINDS...BUT UNLESS STORMS CAN ORGANIZE ON THE MESOSCALE...A WW IS
NOT ANTICIPATED.

..BANACOS.. 05/11/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

34500026 36840024 36780231 35290353 34090383 32890383
32470281 32710074