[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102310 
COZ000-110045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0638
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CO EAST OF FRONT RANGE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 179...

VALID 102310Z - 110045Z

CONTINUE WW.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...CONTINUE ACROSS
THE PLAINS OF CO...GENERALLY WITHIN 70 NM OF THE FRONT RANGE. STORMS
ARE MOVING GENERALLY NEWD AT 10-15 KT.

AT LOW-LEVELS...ESELY TO SELY WINDS AROUND 20 KTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
RICHER MOISTURE WWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S/. ASSOCIATED STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR/HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR AROUND 50 KT
PER PUEBLO VAD WIND PROFILE.

MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH 100MB MLCAPE BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...AND VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...PARTICULARLY WITH ROTATING UPDRAFTS. AN
ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY LATER THIS EVENING AS
BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO MOISTEN AND LCL HEIGHTS LOWER. INCREASED
MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD RESULT IN MORE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

37590216 37550488 40950512 41000221 

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