[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102305 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-110100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0637
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NRN IN...CNTRL/SRN LWR MI...NW OH

CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS 

VALID 102305Z - 110100Z

WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC INTO HUDSON/JAMES BAY...WHERE A CLOSED LOW IS
PROGGED TO GRADUALLY EVOLVE AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET
NOSES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC.  THOUGH STRONGER
BELT OF WESTERLIES IS MOSTLY JUST NORTH OF THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER...DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON ITS SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY IS ENHANCING DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.

ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.  LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND FOCUS/FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE RELATIVELY
WEAK...AND APPEAR TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR EVOLUTION OF MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLUSTER OF STORMS. HOWEVER...GIVEN FAVORABLY COOL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES...MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS ANOTHER
COUPLE OF HOURS.  BULK OF CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY DEVELOP
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG 25 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS TOWARD SOUTHERN ONTARIO
LATER THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS.

..KERR.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

41578313 40908519 40418753 39998926 41078919 42508736
43248569 43518374 43628269 

WWWW