[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 102244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102243 
MTZ000-WYZ000-110045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SE MT...ERN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 178...

VALID 102243Z - 110045Z

CONTINUE WW...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY
OF INCREASING SEVERE THREAT AND WW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA.

STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
TOWARD THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  CENTER OF RAPID PRESSURE FALLS...WHICH
DEVELOPED EAST/NORTHEAST OF RIVERTON A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO...IS NOW
SHIFTING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD AREAS EAST OF THE BIG
HORNS...AND WILL PROGRESS INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY THE 11/00-02Z
TIME FRAME.

AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...BUT ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL/NORTHEAST WYOMING...POSSIBLY INTO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THOUGH MOISTURE IS STILL RETURNING...RAPID DESTABILIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH DYNAMIC FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND
DIFFERENTIAL THERMAL ADVECTION CONTINUES.  THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FOR INCREASING NUMBER OF STORMS...THOUGH ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN
CELLULAR IN NATURE.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MEAN MIXED
LAYER CAPE HAS INCREASED INTO THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS
EASTERN WYOMING... AND SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOW MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
FOR SUPERCELLS.

..KERR.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

45690881 46100796 45810602 45350520 44670435 43620407
41940421 41890475 42400586 43120662 44470705 

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