[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101914 
NYZ000-PAZ000-OHZ000-102145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NE OH...NW PA AND WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101914Z - 102145Z

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ACROSS NE OH
THROUGH WRN NY. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS.

THIS AFTERNOON THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE IN WAKE OF
MORNING CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV. AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO
THE 80S MLCAPE SHOULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW
BOUNDARY LAYER CUMULUS INCREASING FROM NE OH THROUGH NW PA AND WRN
NY ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE. GIVEN WEAK CAP...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND INCREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
NATURE OF THE FLOW IS LIMITING THE 0-6 KM SHEAR TO GENERALLY AROUND
30 KT. HOWEVER...THIS AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES WITH 30-40 KT OF FLOW BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM. STORMS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO LINE SEGMENTS AS THEY SPREAD EWD WITH THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ALSO APPEAR
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME THREAT FOR HAIL.

..DIAL.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

42417912 43107737 43187587 42077582 40898068 41268151 

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