[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 101904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101904 
NEZ000-COZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-102130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0634
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0204 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN/SERN WY...NERN CO...WRN NEB PANHANDLE...FAR
SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 101904Z - 102130Z

ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ACROSS ERN WY BETWEEN
22-00Z WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES. WW
PROBABLE NEXT 1-3 HOURS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS OF FAR ERN WY/NERN
CO/WRN NEB PANHANDLE.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS WY AT 18Z WILL PUSH EWD THIS EVENING AS
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS NEWD. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A STRONG SURFACE LOW /990MB/ NEWD
INTO NWRN/NRN WY DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...A STATIONARY FRONT WAS DECAYING ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN NEB AS
SURFACE WINDS TURN ESELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROUGH.

IN RESPONSE TO PRESSURE FALLS...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL LEAD TO SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS FAR SERN
WY...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG/
BY 00Z. ENVIRONMENT WILL ALSO BECOME EXTREMELY SHEARED BY 00Z WITH
400-500 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND SUFFICIENT SFC-6KM SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
ONLY QUESTION FOR TORNADOES IS MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
MARGINALLY HIGH LCL HEIGHTS...BUT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SERN WY/SWRN NEB PANHANDLE AREA WHERE
MOIST AXIS APPEARS TO BE ESTABLISHING. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8-9
C/KM WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /2”+/ WITH ANY ROTATING
STORMS.

AS 500MB HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS E-CENTRAL WY BETWEEN
22-00Z...ANTICIPATE HIGH BASED CUMULUS TOWERS DEVELOPING PRESENTLY
OVER THE LARAMIE RANGE TO EVOLVE INTO ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AS THEY
MOVE ENEWD INTO THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER VALLEY AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF
FAR ERN/SERN WY. ISOLATED STORMS MAY ALSO EVOLVE NEAR THE FRONT
RANGE OF FAR NRN CO WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT IN NERN CO THIS
EVENING.

..BANACOS.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

40110512 42190607 43520669 44150660 44550652 44780581
44790500 44510431 44070424 43210395 41920355 40090310 

WWWW