[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100204
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100204 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-100300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0627
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0904 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SRN LOWER MI...NERN IL/NRN IND AND NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 175...

VALID 100204Z - 100300Z

ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD NOW BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL AND IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE THEN WW 175
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLY.

OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SURGE AHEAD OF CONVECTIVE LINE OVER NWRN OH.
THUS DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MESOHIGH.
ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NCENTRAL IND MAY POSE A SHORT
TERM THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS INTO NERN IND THROUGH 03Z...IF CELL
MERGERS CAN ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS BEFORE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION
OCCURS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

40988841 41578775 41638620 41958526 42208385 42038282
41428341 40958427 40958533 

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