[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100109
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100109 
WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-100315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0626
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0809 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WI...SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 174...176...

VALID 100109Z - 100315Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTIONS OF WWS.

INTENSE LEADING LINE OF STORMS HAS PROGRESSED SOUTHEAST OF EAU
CLAIRE...WHERE IT INTERSECTS SURFACE WARM FRONT...WHICH EXTENDS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AREAS NORTHEAST OF MADISON. DESPITE SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WARM FRONT...WARMING OF BOUNDARY LAYER
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN  WISCONSIN WILL BE RESTRICTED BY
ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING IN WARM SECTOR...AND
STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE MICHIGAN.  THUS...IT APPEARS DAMAGING
WIND THREAT ACROSS WASAU/WISCONSIN RAPIDS AREAS INTO THE VICINITY OF
APPLETON WILL BE LIMITED.  A GRADUALLY DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE
INTENSITY SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE WITH LEAD CLUSTER OF STORMS.

THROUGH THE 02-04Z TIME FRAME...MOST INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WILL REMAIN ALONG TRAILING CONFLUENT BAND NORTH/EAST OF THE LA
CROSSE AREA INTO VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
 LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST IN STRONGEST CELLS. 
THREAT FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AS
MEAN FLOW REGIME BECOMES WESTERLY...AND INTENSE CELLS BEGIN TO TRAIN
EASTWARD IN THE VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 90.

..KERR.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

44309462 44429374 44459276 44439149 45579119 46549177
46658959 45728840 45018807 43448870 43529038 43139302
43319419 43219505 43259567 43269637 43959574 44379484 

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