[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100243
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100243 
NEZ000-100445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0628
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0943 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL...SRN...ERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 177...

VALID 100243Z - 100445Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW.

LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OUT
OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS A LARGE PART OF
CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA.  ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY BEEN
FOCUSED ALONG LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY
AXIS...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO BECOME OVERTURNED.  EXCEPTION TO THIS
APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE IMPERIAL/MCCOOK AREAS...WHERE CAPPING
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL PERSIST.  ON EDGE OF CAP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG...FORCING ON NOSE OF 40 TO 50
KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY LEADING
EDGE OF OUTFLOW SURGING THROUGH THE GRAND ISLAND/KEARNEY AREAS
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...WITH ADDITIONAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z.

..KERR.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41189943 41409835 41869787 42339732 42399685 41869660
41089683 40489742 40149858 40129928 40369984 40840040 

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