[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 100008
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100008 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-100215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0625
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0708 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...NERN MD...SRN NJ...DE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 100008Z - 100215Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS FAR SERN PA
SEWD INTO SRN NJ/NERN MD/DE DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. EXPECTED
SHORT DURATION OF SEVERE THREAT WILL PRECLUDE WW ISSUANCE.

AT 00Z...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CELLS EXTEND FROM
CUMBERLAND COUNTY ESEWD INTO CHESTER COUNTY PA. STORMS ARE TRACKING
GENERALLY 300/25 KT...GENERALLY ALONG A MODEST NW-SE ORIENTED
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ORIENTED FROM CENTRAL PA INTO SRN NJ.
GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS JUST SOUTH OF THIS AREA...WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG
ACROSS NERN MD AND PART OF THE DELMARVA. LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING
AND DIURNAL COOLING SHOULD LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND OF MOST STORMS.
HOWEVER...A FEW SEVERE CELLS TAPPING BETTER AIR MASS ACROSS NERN MD
MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z OR SO WITH THE THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
OR SEVERE WIND. GREATEST THREAT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS SHOULD
MIGRATE INTO NERN MD/NRN DE/FAR SRN NJ.

..BANACOS.. 05/10/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

39937769 40217750 40437692 40437632 40367593 40057553
39867531 39617508 39397515 39257537 39207589 39347662
39487746 

WWWW