[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092312
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092312 
NEZ000-100115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0624
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH NERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 172...

VALID 092312Z - 100115Z

NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WW LIKELY WILL BE NEEDED EAST OF WWS 171/172
WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

INCREASING/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING ALONG
PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF SOUTHWEST/ WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE HEATED TO AROUND 90F ALONG THIS AXIS...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 50S...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING
MICROBURSTS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...IN ADDITION TO CONTINUING LARGE
HAIL THREAT.  

BELT OF STRONGER FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO LIFT OUT OF WYOMING. 
DIFLUENT/DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ON TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. FORCING ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EVOLUTION OF CLUSTER OF STORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA BY THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. 
EVOLUTION OF LARGE SURFACE COLD POOL APPEARS POSSIBLE...WHICH SHOULD
BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AS IT SURGES TOWARD THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER LATER THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

41380239 41780094 42069925 42599742 41449626 40439736
40209972 40450154