[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092238 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-100045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0538 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NW/W CNTRL WI...CNTRL/SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 092238Z - 100045Z

CONTINUE TORNADO WW 173 AND SEVERE WW 171.

PRE-FRONTAL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE
NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS...ACROSS THE SIOUX FALLS SD AREA INTO THE
MINNEAPOLIS MN AREA...AND IS PROVIDING FOCUS FOR STRONG
DESTABILIZATION.  STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG HEATING
HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG...
SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS

EVOLUTION OF LARGE SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
ONGOING ON NOSE OF THERMAL RIDGE...NEAR THE MINNEAPOLIS AREA...WHERE
DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD HAS BECOME FOCUSED AHEAD OF NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS REGIME WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...AS UPSTREAM TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN.

STRONGER 2 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
EASTWARD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND INTENSE
LEADING EDGE OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER SHOULD SPREAD INTO AREAS
NEAR/NORTH THROUGH NORTHEAST OF EAU CLAIRE BY 10/00-01Z.

OTHER INTENSE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG
TRAILING UPSTREAM LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE...BENEATH THERMAL
RIDGE...SOUTH OF MINNEAPOLIS TOWARD THE SIOUX FALLS AREA.

VERY WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTS SPREADS
WILL SUPPORT STRONG DOWNBURSTS...AND EVOLUTION OF SEVERAL SURGING
COLD POOL WITH GUSTY WINDS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. 
HOWEVER...ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ALONG WARM FRONT EAST OF
MINNEAPOLIS INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS.

..KERR.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

44199637 44199517 44709446 45289327 45929288 46489227
46629108 46048981 44939022 44319107 43679269 43459390
43389464 43169586 42679702 42499765 43559782 44039709 

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