[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 092218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092217 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-092345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IL...FAR NRN IND...AND CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...

VALID 092217Z - 092345Z

CONTINUE WW.

AT 22Z...CONVECTION HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS ERN LAKE MICHIGAN
EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN LOWER MI. CELLS WERE MOVING GENERALLY ENEWD
IN DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY FLOW PER GRR AND DET VAD WIND PROFILES.
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KT REMAINS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
LONG-LIVED UPDRAFTS WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. THE
WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD RAPIDLY USE THE MODERATE
CAPE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO A GENERAL DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM INTENSITY LATE THIS EVENING. UNTIL THEN...THREAT OF
LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN
LOWER MI.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS N-CENTRAL IL CONTINUE
MOVING ENEWD AT 25-30 KT. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE
CHICAGO METRO AREA BETWEEN 2330-0000Z. SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF
1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS NRN/NERN IL...WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR SPREADING NEWD FROM ERN IA. POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR LARGE
HAIL WITH THE STRONGER CELLS DURING THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS.

..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

41178824 42058825 42358731 42658675 43218637 43788611
44148259 41848259 41498586 

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