[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091942
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091942 
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-092215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0617
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL NEB THROUGH NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091942Z - 092215Z

SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM WRN THROUGH CNTRL NEB INTO PARTS
OF NW KS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
 
THIS AFTERNOON A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SERN SD
SWWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND SW NEB. THE DRY LINE EXTENDS SWD THROUGH
ERN CO. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN SD. THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE IN MOIST WARM SECTOR S AND E OF
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND E OF THE DRY LINE FROM CNTRL NEB SWWD
THROUGH NW KS. MLCAPE WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 2500 J/KG THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOIST WARM SECTOR STILL APPEARS CAPPED TO
SURFACE BASED STORMS. HIGH BASED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE MORE
DEEPLY MIXED DRYER ENVIRONMENT ACROSS ERN CO AND INTO THE NEB
PANHANDLE...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY AS IT DEVELOPS
EWD INTO BETTER MOISTURE. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING ACROSS NEB...ALONG THE NE-SW ORIENTED BOUNDARY
AS THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE
RELATIVELY WEAK IN THIS AREA SO MULTICELL STORMS SHOULD BE THE
DOMINANT MODE. HOWEVER...STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE NEB BOUNDARY
MAY OCCASIONALLY DEVELOP SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT WITH THE HIGH BASED ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE AS STORMS DEVELOP
FARTHER EWD ALONG THE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE MOIST AXIS.

..DIAL.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...CYS...

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