[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091900 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-092130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0616
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN ND...ERN SD...AND SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091900Z - 092130Z

STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY IN THIS AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN ND SWWD THROUGH NERN SD
AND FARTHER SW INTO SWRN SD. A WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ACROSS SRN MN NWWD THROUGH NERN SD WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE COLD
FRONT. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE. UPPER 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS... STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
SURFACE HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THIS REGION
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH ND
AND SRN CANADA...SUPPORTING DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40 TO 45 KT. AS
THE CAP CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE COLD FRONT FROM SE ND THROUGH NERN SD...AS WELL AS ALONG AND N
OF THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS MN.

..DIAL.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

44229887 44779893 45519894 46429790 45679555 44599294
43979299 44059655 43499753 43479886 

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