[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091947
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091946 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-092115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0618
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN IL...FAR SERN WI...CENTRAL/SRN LOWER
MI...AND FAR NRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 170...

VALID 091946Z - 092115Z

CONTINUE WW.

AT 1935Z...TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS EXIST ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
AN MCV IS SUPPORTING A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SERN WI LAKE
SHORE SWD INTO THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD
MAINTAIN A FEW SEVERE CELLS AS STORMS CROSS CENTRAL/SRN LAKE
MICHIGAN THROUGH 2130Z.

EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AIR MASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ACROSS SRN LOWER MI WITH 100MB MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG
THIS HOUR. THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BARRY COUNTY MI SSWWD TO
CASS COUNTY SHOULD CONTINUE WITH A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THEY MOVE EWD AT 20 KT OR SO. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
REGIME SHOULD DESTABILIZE AIR MASS ACROSS SERN MI DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL CELLS FORMING IN ADVANCE OF
EXISTING ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI.

..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...

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