[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091744
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091743 
PAZ000-091945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0615
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091743Z - 091945Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL PA IN AN E-W
ORIENTED BAND. CELLS WILL TRACK GENERALLY ESEWD AT 20-25 KT.
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL WITH THESE STORMS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH DURING THE
NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

AT 1730Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TOWERING CUMULUS
HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN AN E-W ORIENTED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE
STRETCHING FROM 25 SE FKL TO JUST NORTH OF STATE COLLEGE. BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MORE DEEPLY MIXED ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF PA...AND AS THIS
AIR MASS ADVECTS EWD...DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS THE ERN
HALF OF PA THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS MINIMAL IN
VICINITY OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON RADAR ACROSS JEFFERSON AND
CLEARFIELD COUNTIES IN W-CENTRAL PA.

MODERATELY STEEP 850-500MB LAPSE RATES /AROUND 7 C/KM/ WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL PA. WBZ HEIGHTS OF 8-9 KFT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL
WITH LONGER LIVED STORMS. ALSO...MODERATE WLY FLOW ON STATE COLLEGE
VAD /30-35 KT IN 3-4 KM LAYER/ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH CONVECTIVE DOWNDRAFTS THIS AFTERNOON.

..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...

41537942 41497829 41447707 41357612 41307568 40967546
40577537 40227569 40167656 40167786 40257883 40417949
40577980 41097986 

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