[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091648
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091648 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-091915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0614
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1148 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN WI...FAR NERN IL...CENTRAL/SRN MI...FAR NRN
IND...AND NWRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091648Z - 091915Z

CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS SERN WI/NERN IL DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO. A WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY. 

AT 1630Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX MOVING ENEWD ACROSS FAR SRN WI. THE TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE IS VERY NEAR TO THE STRONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM MSN EWD TO THE LAKE BREEZE ALONG THE SWRN LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORE. THE FRONT EXTENDS EWD ACROSS LOWER MI FROM MKG TO FNT. 

MCV WILL LIKELY AID IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...POSSIBLY ACROSS FAR
SERN WI/NRN IL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ACARS DATA MODIFIED FOR
CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS AT ORD INDICATES CIN IS NEAR ZERO.
MODERATE INSTABILITY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500
J/KG AND ENHANCED SHEAR WITH MCV MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...INCLUDING AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
ZONE WHERE ELEVATED STORMS TAPPING UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

41528717 41768953 42948971 43698964 43908860 43808657
43688326 43128253 42198282 41928314 41278464 

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