[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 091612
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091612 
MDZ000-PAZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-091845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0613
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1112 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR ERN WV...S-CENTRAL PA...CENTRAL/NRN
VA...WRN/CENTRAL MD...WASHINGTON D.C. METRO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 091612Z - 091845Z

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SRN PA/WRN MD/ERN WV DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. STORMS DEVELOPING IN
THIS REGION WILL MOVE GENERALLY 280/20 KT. THREAT OF HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS MAY NECESSITATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

AT 16Z...CIN HAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHED ACROSS ERN WV NWD INTO S-CENTRAL
PA IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE/. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER CU ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

DISCUSSION AREA IS ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE WESTERLIES...WITH ETA
AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 30 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A
FEW LONGER LIVED STORMS AND SHORT CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
LEAD TO 100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING IS WEAK...ISOLATED STORMS FORMING OVER
THE MTNS SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL/NRN
VA...CENTRAL MD...AND S-CENTRAL PA TOWARD MID-LATE AFTERNOON
SUSTAINED BY SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR.

..BANACOS.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

38917983 40097891 40147786 40037708 38937687 38387706
37827753 37537812 37417894 37878042 

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