[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090217
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090217 
NDZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-090345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0607
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0917 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AND CENTRAL ND/SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 166...168...

VALID 090217Z - 090345Z

DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR BEYOND WW 166
EXPIRATION TIME OVER CENTRAL/ERN ND. HOWEVER...A CONTINUED WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE A NEW WW IS NOT EXPECTED. FARTHER
SOUTH...SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS OVER
CENTRAL SD...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER SCENTRAL SD WHERE A
CLUSTER SEVERE STORMS WILL MOVE SEWD AROUND 30 KTS. THE SEVERE
THREAT MAY MOVE OUT OF WW 168 BY 09/04Z...THEREFORE A NEW WW MAY BE
NEEDED FOR SERN SD.

00Z SOUNDING FROM ABR INDICATES SUBSTANTIALLY LESS INSTABILITY THAN
AREAS FARTHER WEST...WITH MUCAPES AROUND 400 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DAMAGING
WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...THE CONVECTIVE LINE OVER CENTRAL ND IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN THE NEXT HOUR AND WW 166 WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 09/02Z. FARTHER SOUTH...INSTABILITY AXIS OF
2000-3000 J/KG EXTENDS FROM NWRN IA INTO FAR NRN NEB. INCREASING SLY
LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS MAY AID IN SUFFICIENT
INFLOW/CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS OVER
SCENTRAL SD SOUTHEAST OF WW 168. CURRENT EXTRAPOLATION OF THIS
CLUSTER MOVEMENT...300/30 KTS WOULD TAKE THE SEVERE THREAT OUT OF WW
168 BY 09/04Z. AREAS SE OF WW 168 WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANOTHER
POSSIBLE WW IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..CROSBIE.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

43340200 44000162 45879999 46300054 46790039 47890015
48969991 48509785 44999727 43629726 42849833 42990167 

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