[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090255
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090255 
PAZ000-OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-090500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0608
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0955 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI...SRN LWR MI...LAKE ERIE VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 167...

VALID 090255Z - 090500Z

CONTINUE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW UNTIL 05Z EXPIRATION.  LARGE
HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ISOLATED...AND
NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

BROADER TROUGH WITH A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES/SPEED MAXIMA
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT
LAKES REGION.  LEAD FEATURE ALREADY APPEARS TO BE SHIFTING ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT UPSTREAM IMPULSE...AS SUGGESTED BY MODELS AND
OBSERVATIONAL DATA...CONTINUES TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN EAST-WEST BAND ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY FOCUSED IN BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH OF SURFACE
WARM FRONT... WHERE FRONTAL INVERSION LIKELY IS MINIMIZING DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...GIVEN CAPE STILL ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG...ISOLATED INTENSE UPDRAFTS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE SLOW
TO DIMINISH.  FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND LAKE ERIE OVERNIGHT. 
UNTIL THEN...TRAINING CONVECTION WILL MAINTAIN THREAT FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

..KERR.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...

43309056 43568945 43348739 42938512 42918299 43108096
43007942 41788039 41258253 41908567 41878812 42509059 

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