[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090147
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090146 
MIZ000-090345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0606
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SE LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 090146Z - 090345Z

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED...BUT WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK HAS PROGRESSED OUT OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER WESTERLIES INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 06Z.  FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE HAS AIDED EVOLUTION OF SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ALONG
LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...ABOVE FRONTAL INVERSION...WHICH EXTENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO.  ACTIVITY
APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF FLINT AND PORT
HURON BY THE 04-05Z TIME FRAME.  WHILE FRONTAL INVERSION APPEARS TO
PRECLUDE APPRECIABLE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...SUFFICIENT CAPE 
EXISTS TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...WITH SOME HAIL
NEAR/JUST IN EXCESS OF SEVERE LIMITS.

..KERR.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...GRR...

42488299 42428421 42578499 42878554 43218557 43458504
43568409 43348289 43308249 

WWWW