[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 090055
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090054 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-090300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0605
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL NEB INTO SOUTHERN IOWA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 163...164...

VALID 090054Z - 090300Z

NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY CURRENT 02Z WW EXPIRATION.

NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET WILL HELP
MAINTAIN INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  BY AROUND 03Z...STRONGEST FORCING
APPEARS LIKELY TO BECOME FOCUSED IN THE VICINITY OF THE LINCOLN AND
OMAHA NEB AREAS...WHERE INSTABILITY IS CURRENTLY STRONGEST WITH MEAN
MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  LARGE SLOW MOVING
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE.  PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS...AS UNSATURATED LOW/MID
LEVEL AIR MASS ALLOWS SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FOR DOWNBURSTS
AND EVOLUTION OF SURGING COLD POOLS.  PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINS MAY
LEAD TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAIN TOTALS BY LATE EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/09/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

41389841 41599654 41919607 42189525 42019372 41979260
41049310 40799427 40419542 39889625 40049855 

WWWW