[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082211 
SDZ000-NDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-082315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0599
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 162...

VALID 082211Z - 082315Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #162 REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS FOR THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.


AT 22Z...TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTED ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NERN
MT...WITH LINE MOVEMENT 240/45KT TOWARD FAR NWRN ND. MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 1000 J/KG ACROSS NWRN ND SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND
WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH 00Z. AIR MASS ACROSS
N-CENTRAL ND IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE...WHICH MAY LIMIT EWD PROGRESS
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT EAST OF CURRENT WATCH AREA. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED ACROSS NWRN ND DURING THE NEXT HOUR FOR
PROSPECTS OF ADDITIONAL WW DOWNSTREAM OF CURRENT WATCH. 

ELSEWHERE...STRONG CELLS ACROSS NWRN SD ARE EMBEDDED IN MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR WITH 100MB MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG. LARGE HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH STRONGER CORES. LARGE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ON
THE ORDER OF 35-40F SUGGEST ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD AT 15-20 KT ACROSS MEADE AND
WRN ZIEBACH COUNTIES IN NWRN SD DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 

POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO ACROSS FAR
SERN MT AS UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENCOUNTER MORE UNSTABLE
AIR NEAR THE MT/NWRN SD AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

..BANACOS.. 05/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

44340358 46700547 47020452 47880519 48440558 48950559
48950370 44350017 

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