[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 082209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082208 
MIZ000-WIZ000-090015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0598
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN WI INTO LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 082208Z - 090015Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SEVERE THREAT.  A WW MAY
BE NEEDED WITHIN NEXT HOUR OR SO.

SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BELT OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.  ONE APPEARS TO BE
SHIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AIDING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CONFLUENT ZONE ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

ACTIVITY IS ROOTED IN MOIST LAYER RETURNING EAST NORTHEASTWARD ABOVE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. 
THIS LIKELY WILL MINIMIZE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BUT
FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING.

..KERR.. 05/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX...ARX...

43739009 44108877 44228732 44138544 43688368 42798268
42538444 42698649 42988843 42918949 43148998 

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