[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080526
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080526 
WIZ000-MIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-080630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0588
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN MN / FAR NERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 080526Z - 080630Z

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE / SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN MN / NRN
IA AND INTO SRN WI.  NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY AS THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION.

ALTHOUGH MAIN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL JET HAS REMAINS W OF THIS
REGION...JET SHOULD CONTINUE VEER AS PER LATEST MODEL FORECASTS.  AS
STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THIS REGION...RESULTING
LIFT ALONG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES / MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE / SPREAD EWD
INTO THIS REGION.

ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SOMEWHAT WEAK /NEAR 30 KT/...DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY SUPPORTS A HAIL THREAT WITH WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. 
GREATEST INSTABILITY REMAINS CONFINED TO AREAS FROM SWRN WI WWD
ATTM...BUT AIRMASS SHOULD DESTABILIZE EWD AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND
ASSOCIATED THETA-E ADVECTION SHIFTS EWD.

..GOSS.. 05/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...MPX...

44659204 45168947 45168744 43098769 42559157 44039229 

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