[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080254
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080253 
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0587
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0953 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NEB/SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 080253Z - 080430Z

RAPID INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS AND A WW MAY BE REQUIRED.

AS OF 0240Z...OAX/UEX RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TSTMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
OVER BOONE COUNTY W OF OLU. STRENGTHENING LLJ JET OVER SURFACE FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST S OF THE PLATTE RIVER IS LIKELY AIDING IN
THIS DEVELOPMENT. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS N OF FRONT ACROSS NERN NEB
INDICATE STRONG ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG
FOR PARCELS BASED AROUND 800MB. THOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE
BUOYANCY LAYER IS NOT PARTICULAR STRONG... PRESENCE OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
PROMOTE LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION.

EXPECT ELEVATED TSTMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS NWRN IA/SERN SD
INTO SRN MN ALONG NEWD-EXPANDING LLJ AXIS. WHILE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH NWD EXTENT...STRONGER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT
STORM ORGANIZATION AND A HAIL THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS.

..MEAD.. 05/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

41619833 42999807 44079680 44859464 44829290 43869232
42969262 42149506 41349693 

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