[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080728
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080727 
WIZ000-MNZ000-IAZ000-080900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0589
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA / SRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 160...

VALID 080727Z - 080900Z

STRONG / SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS WW AREA.

WEAKLY ORGANIZED / ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NERN
HALF OF WW IN N CENTRAL IA / SRN MN.  MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
/1000 TO 2000 J/KG MOST-UNSTABLE CAPE/ REMAINS ACROSS THIS
REGION...AND DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO
MAINTAIN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR HAIL.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
VEER...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO AN EWD SHIFT IN GREATEST SEVERE
THREAT.  THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE WITH TIME...WITH MAIN THREAT
SLOWING SHIFTING INTO WI / WW #0161.  

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THREAT MAY LINGER ACROSS NERN QUARTER IA FOR
AN HOUR OR SO BEYOND THE 08/09Z EXPIRATION OF WW.  HOWEVER...IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE CONTINUED EWD SHIFT OF THREAT INTO WW #0161
WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW WW.

..GOSS.. 05/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

44259454 44559217 42099217 41899456 43219595 

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