[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 080121
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080120 
ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-080245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0586
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 158...

VALID 080120Z - 080245Z

GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF WW 158 THROUGH 04Z.

AS OF 01Z...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATED WEAKENING TSTM CLUSTER
ACROSS SRN WI INTO FAR NRN IL MOVING EWD INTO LAKE MI. EWD
PROGRESSION AWAY FROM STRONGER ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER
ERN NEB/WRN AND CNTRL IA INTO NRN MO MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THIS
WEAKENING TREND. FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY FROM PORTIONS OF SERN MN SWWD INTO N-CNTRL AND
NERN IA. SRN EXTENSION OF THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN PORTIONS
OF WW AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

MORE VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 03 AND 06Z OVER
PORTIONS OF NERN NEB/SERN SD EWD ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA AS
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OBSERVED ON THE 00Z OAX SOUNDING IS
ISENTROPICALLY LIFTED TO THE LFC ON STRENGTHENING LLJ. THUS...AN
ADDITIONAL WW MAY WELL BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IA AND SRN
MN WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

..MEAD.. 05/08/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...

43529207 43098760 41648761 42089210 

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