[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072218
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072217 
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-080015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0583
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0517 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV PANHANDLE...NRN VA...MD...AND DE...INCLUDING
THE WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 157...

VALID 072217Z - 080015Z

LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY ACROSS NRN VA...SRN MD...AND
SRN/WRN PORTION OF THE WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA DURING THE NEXT
1-2 HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH 02Z. 

AT 22Z...A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS WAS CROSSING FROM NERN WV INTO
NWRN VA...WITH MOTION 290/45-50 KT. ADDITIONAL SEVERE CELLS WERE
DEVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...ORIENTED ALONG A SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ESEWD ACROSS NRN VA. THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM IAD
INDICATED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 7 C/KM. WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...100MB MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG
EXISTS IN ADVANCE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ORGANIZED NATURE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GREATEST THREAT
OF WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE SHOULD OCCUR WITH SMALL...FAST MOVING BOW
ECHOES. ISOLATED BUT LONG-LIVED CELLS IN ADVANCE OF THE CONVECTIVE
LINE WILL LIKELY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT DURING
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS IS LIKELY ACROSS NRN VA INCLUDING THE SRN AND WRN
WASHINGTON D.C. METRO AREA.

..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

38347933 39077890 39687856 39397503 37957503 38187755 

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