[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 072303
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072302 
VAZ000-MDZ000-080130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0584
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0602 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN VA AND LOWER ERN SHORE OF VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 072302Z - 080130Z

THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE JUST SOUTH OF WW 157 AREA ACROSS
ERN VA DURING THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. 

AT 2250Z...RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS
N-CENTRAL VA HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ON ITS SRN FLANK. STRONG
REFLECTIVITY CORES AND SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO POTENTIAL ACROSS
FAUQUIER AND CULPEPER COUNTIES IN VA SHOULD TRACK 310/35-40
KT...TOWARD MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS JUST SOUTH OF THE WW 157 AREA
/100MB MLCAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG /. PORTIONS OF ERN VA MAY BE
AFFECTED BY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH 08/01Z...WITH
CAROLINE AND ESSEX COUNTIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA
MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. EVOLUTION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED...BUT SMALL THREAT AREA OUTSIDE OF COUNTIES ALREADY
INCLUDED WITHIN WW 157 MAY PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

38247819 38147711 38077633 37707624 37337630 37377682
37527789 37587837 

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