[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071649
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071649 
OHZ000-WVZ000-INZ000-071815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0578
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1149 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 154...

VALID 071649Z - 071815Z

AN MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS SRN OH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL AFFECT THE
REMAINDER OF WW 154. A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
EXIST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT THE WRN PORTION OF WW 155
BY 20Z.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ACROSS SRN OH
AND SRN IND. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING NRN IND WILL SUPPORT THE
STORMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY ABOVE
700 MB. BECAUSE OF THIS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED. A FEW SFC-BASED STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND 40 KT AND
THIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR
BOWING SEGMENTS. A THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGER
CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

39548484 40008451 40348367 40588284 40418224 39878173
39418171 38958190 38758227 

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