[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071718
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071717 
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-071845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0579
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1217 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SERN PA...NY...DE...ERN MD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 071717Z - 071845Z

A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SERN PA INTO THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE ACTIVITY AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
SOON DOWNSTREAM OF WW155.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ORIENTED ENE TO WSW ACROSS NRN PA.
AN MCS IS MOVING ESEWD SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INTO A MOIST AXIS
WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH INSTABILITY OF 500
TO 1000 J/KG. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN SFC-BASED AS IT
MOVES EWD TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED FLOW AT 700 MB ADVANCING ESEWD
TOWARD SERN PA AND THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS THE REGION WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS ARE MOVING AT
45 KT WHICH COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WILL CREATE A
WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS.

..BROYLES.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

39047621 40547618 40257410 38897491 

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