[MCD] SWOMCD

[MCD at goshenarc.org]

ACUS11 KWNS 071645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071644 
ILZ000-IAZ000-071845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0577
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1144 AM CDT FRI MAY 07 2004

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CENTRAL IA AND NRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 071644Z - 071845Z

THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS E-CENTRAL IA AND NRN IL THROUGH 20Z.

AT 1630Z...A BACKBUILDING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG AN
E-W ORIENTED AXIS FROM 20S RFD TO 15N CID. STORM UPDRAFTS ARE ROOTED
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT BEING PROVIDED OVER
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IL WWD ALONG THE MO/IA
BORDER. VERY STEEP 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES...AROUND 8 C/KM...WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ELEVATED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THIS SHOULD SUSTAIN THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH
STRONGER...MORE LONG-LIVED CELLS. ADDITIONALLY...TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL TO
2"/HR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. BY LATE AFTERNOON...WARM ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED LIFT SHOULD FOCUS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST DIMINISHING
THREAT OF SEVERE ACTIVITY OVER E-CENTRAL IA AND NRN IL.

..BANACOS.. 05/07/2004

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...

42269183 42389092 42208937 42098853 41988789 41578757
41028780 41288992 41499139 41809196 

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